V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
7.73
increased by 0.20
1 Week
7.68
increased by 0.15
1 Month
7.24
decreased by 0.29
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9702 | 5.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0756 | 1.15 |
| βGARCH | 0.9244 | 14.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0101 | -0.35 |
1.000
Persistence115524d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9702 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9244 | 14.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0101 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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