V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
8.04
decreased by 0.32
1 Week
8.83
increased by 0.47
1 Month
9.63
increased by 1.27
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0361 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9197 | 34.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0085 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | 0.0041 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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