V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
26.65
1 Week
26.76
1 Month
25.73
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0711 | 2.04** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 434.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0711 | -0.85 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0074 | 1.66* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1274 | 5.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8715 | 9.52*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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