PubMatic Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
2,898.14
decreased by 133.50
1 Week
2,806.87
decreased by 224.77
1 Month
1,985.15
decreased by 1,046.49
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 04:38 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2020 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 543 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~543 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.37 |
| αARCH | 0.0627 | 2.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9154 | 87.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0412 | 0.87 |
0.999
Persistence543d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 2.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9154 | 87.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0412 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
543 days
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