PubMatic Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
1,766.34
increased by 595.38
1 Week
1,286.77
increased by 115.81
1 Month
1,403.64
increased by 232.68
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2020 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 369 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~369 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.38 |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9141 | 86.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0417 | 0.88 |
0.998
Persistence369d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 86.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0417 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
369 days
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