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V-Lab

News Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

163.48

decreased by 0.05

1 Week

163.45

decreased by 0.08

1 Month

126.92

decreased by 36.61

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of News Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3640
13.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0600
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9252
91.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0252
-7.15***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days