V-Lab
News Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
150.13
decreased by 10.03
1 Week
156.59
decreased by 3.57
1 Month
139.03
decreased by 21.13
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3724 | 13.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0601 | 7.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 91.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0250 | -7.39*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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