V-Lab
News Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
163.48
decreased by 0.05
1 Week
163.45
decreased by 0.08
1 Month
126.92
decreased by 36.61
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3640 | 13.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 91.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0252 | -7.15*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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