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V-Lab

News Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

101.03

decreased by 0.92

1 Week

100.99

decreased by 0.96

1 Month

88.82

decreased by 13.13

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of News Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2013 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3853
13.93***
αARCH0.0593
7.79***
βGARCH0.9246
91.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0248
-7.73***

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3853
13.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
7.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9246
91.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0248
-7.73***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days