V-Lab
Cloudflare Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.98
decreased by 1.17
1 Week
28.48
decreased by 1.67
1 Month
29.80
decreased by 0.35
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7164 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0188 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9240 | 403.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0985 | 13.99*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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