V-Lab
Cloudflare Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.01
1 Week
38.11
1 Month
38.11
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows asymmetric liquidity dynamics: illiquidity rises 288% more after negative returns than after positive returns of equal magnitude. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0387 | 8.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8921 | 78.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.1116 | 10.20*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 2.07** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4421 | 6.27*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5297 | 6.92*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8921 | 78.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1116 | 10.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.07** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4421 | 6.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5297 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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