How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	21
αARCH	0.0954	6.61***
βGARCH	0.7325	20.51***
γleverage	0.2244	7.22***
λ₁tau intercept	6.8233	1.14
λ₂forecast adj.	0.1821	3.95***
λ₃tau persistence	0.8117	16.72***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	21
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0954	6.61***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7325	20.51***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2244	7.22***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	6.8233	1.14
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.1821	3.95***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8117	16.72***

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Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Shift4 Payments Inc Analyses