Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
281.99
1 Week
292.51
1 Month
327.35
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows asymmetric liquidity dynamics: illiquidity rises 267% more after negative returns than after positive returns of equal magnitude. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0915 | 6.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7375 | 21.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.2444 | 7.44*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 9.7933 | 1.18 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1923 | 3.91*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7992 | 15.27*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 6.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7375 | 21.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2444 | 7.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.7933 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1923 | 3.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7992 | 15.27*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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