How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	21
αARCH	0.0919	6.52***
βGARCH	0.7371	20.60***
γleverage	0.2192	7.09***
λ₁tau intercept	7.5690	1.25
λ₂forecast adj.	0.1882	4.03***
λ₃tau persistence	0.8035	16.24***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	21
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0919	6.52***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7371	20.60***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2192	7.09***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	7.5690	1.25
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.1882	4.03***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8035	16.24***

V-Lab

Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Shift4 Payments Inc Analyses