V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
581.61
decreased by 3.03
1 Week
555.43
decreased by 29.21
1 Month
427.10
decreased by 157.54
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 269% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0671 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9342 | 407.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0712 | 9.32*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
185 days
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