V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
625.71
decreased by 25.53
1 Week
620.00
decreased by 31.24
1 Month
546.99
decreased by 104.25
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 248% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0918 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0288 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9317 | 401.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0716 | 9.26*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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