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Shift4 Payments Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

625.71

decreased by 25.53

1 Week

620.00

decreased by 31.24

1 Month

546.99

decreased by 104.25

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 5, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 248% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0918
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0288
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9317
401.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0716
9.26***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

190 days