V-Lab
Guangdong Shaoneng Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
73.66
increased by 28.15
1 Week
62.88
increased by 17.37
1 Month
133.75
increased by 88.24
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1265 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2637 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7363 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0308 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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