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V-Lab

Guangdong Shaoneng Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

82.62

decreased by 1.52

1 Week

72.89

decreased by 11.25

1 Month

63.61

decreased by 20.53

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangdong Shaoneng Group ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3833
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2651
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7349
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0938
0.00
γ2-0.2492
0.00
γ30.2507
0.01
γ4-0.1690
-0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days