V-Lab
Guangdong Shaoneng Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
54.90
decreased by 7.39
1 Week
71.03
increased by 8.74
1 Month
95.23
increased by 32.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 562 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9390 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2548 | 26.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7440 | 73.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.7405 | -3.24*** |
| γ2 | 2.4498 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -2.9386 | -4.77*** |
| γ4 | 1.4089 | 2.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.0496 | -0.17 |
| γ6 | -0.2005 | -1.55 |
| γ7 | 0.0393 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
562 days
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