V-Lab
Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.25
increased by 0.36
1 Week
10.94
decreased by 0.95
1 Month
12.83
increased by 0.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2541 | 3.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.3423 | 21.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6507 | 36.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0586 | 2.16** |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2541 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3423 | 21.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6507 | 36.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0586 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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