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Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

12.25

increased by 0.36

1 Week

10.94

decreased by 0.95

1 Month

12.83

increased by 0.94

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

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graph of Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 28, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2541
3.35***
αARCH0.3423
21.96***
βGARCH0.6507
36.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0586
2.16**

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2541
3.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3423
21.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6507
36.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0586
2.16**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days