Accord Transformer & Switchgear Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
5,416.84
increased by 1,177.73
1 Week
4,992.83
increased by 753.72
1 Month
7,295.73
increased by 3,056.62
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1015 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.3283 | 3.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5161 | 4.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -8.1183 | -2.26** |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1015 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3283 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5161 | 4.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -8.1183 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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