V-Lab
Accord Transformer & Switchgear Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,403.52
decreased by 138.66
1 Week
3,511.83
decreased by 30.35
1 Month
6,829.88
increased by 3,287.70
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9502 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.2021 | 3.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7054 | 7.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -12.1064 | -2.83*** |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9502 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2021 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7054 | 7.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -12.1064 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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