V-Lab
Halder Venture Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22,662.43
increased by 476.07
1 Week
21,831.99
decreased by 354.37
1 Month
30,531.10
increased by 8,344.74
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1051 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7661 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2683 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7310 | 20.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -9.0187 | -4.28*** |
| γ2 | 9.2534 | 1.67* |
| γ3 | 12.9547 | 0.79 |
| γ4 | -21.6329 | -1.12 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1051 days
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