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V-Lab

Halder Venture Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22,662.43

increased by 476.07

1 Week

21,831.99

decreased by 354.37

1 Month

30,531.10

increased by 8,344.74

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Halder Venture Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1051 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7661
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2683
7.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7310
20.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-9.0187
-4.28***
γ29.2534
1.67*
γ312.9547
0.79
γ4-21.6329
-1.12

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1051 days