V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
2,438,676.00
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
2,492,702.40
increased by 54,026.40
1 Month
2,608,208.65
increased by 169,532.65
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1577 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 0.86 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.3056 | -6.79*** |
| γ2 | 9.8859 | 4.70*** |
| γ3 | -7.8135 | -3.05*** |
| γ4 | 8.8418 | 3.72*** |
| γ5 | -1.6387 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | -2.0878 | -1.33 |
| γ7 | -0.7302 | -0.55 |
| γ8 | -0.7185 | -0.45 |
| γ9 | 1.1172 | 0.66 |
| γ10 | 1.8954 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.048
Half-life:
0 days
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