V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
4,886,025.00
increased by 40,559.00
1 Week
4,856,587.00
increased by 11,121.00
1 Month
4,923,372.45
increased by 77,906.45
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1573 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.3112 | -6.78*** |
| γ2 | 9.8937 | 4.70*** |
| γ3 | -7.8168 | -3.05*** |
| γ4 | 8.8446 | 3.71*** |
| γ5 | -1.6453 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | -2.0704 | -1.32 |
| γ7 | -0.7658 | -0.57 |
| γ8 | -0.6523 | -0.41 |
| γ9 | 0.9791 | 0.57 |
| γ10 | 2.3304 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.049
Half-life:
0 days
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