V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3,484,050.00
decreased by 61,016,710.00
1 Week
15,730,646.60
decreased by 48,770,113.40
1 Month
6,260,104.32
decreased by 58,240,655.68
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1594 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0494 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.2034 | -6.82*** |
| γ2 | 9.7312 | 4.73*** |
| γ3 | -7.7063 | -3.05*** |
| γ4 | 8.8003 | 3.71*** |
| γ5 | -1.6079 | -0.96 |
| γ6 | -2.3323 | -1.37 |
| γ7 | -0.3485 | -0.24 |
| γ8 | -1.1146 | -0.71 |
| γ9 | 1.6614 | 0.99 |
| γ10 | 1.0962 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.049
Half-life:
0 days
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