V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
130.87
increased by 33.99
1 Week
106.15
increased by 9.27
1 Month
199.18
increased by 102.30
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 05:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~141 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6994 | 5.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.1899 | 13.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8052 | 46.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 1.05 |
0.995
Persistence141d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6994 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1899 | 13.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8052 | 46.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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