Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
207.08
decreased by 44.81
1 Week
225.60
decreased by 26.29
1 Month
215.06
decreased by 36.83
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7179 | 5.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1894 | 13.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8056 | 46.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 1.27 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7179 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1894 | 13.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8056 | 46.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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