V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
197.26
decreased by 13.18
1 Week
242.27
increased by 31.83
1 Month
244.05
increased by 33.61
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7076 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1892 | 13.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8058 | 46.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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