V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
180.04
increased by 3.63
1 Week
203.26
increased by 26.85
1 Month
270.22
increased by 93.81
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7084 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1894 | 13.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8057 | 46.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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