V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
245.65
decreased by 35.52
1 Week
270.44
decreased by 10.73
1 Month
243.00
decreased by 38.17
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7108 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1893 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8058 | 46.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0026 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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