V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
174.55
decreased by 1.17
1 Month
147.93
decreased by 27.79
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7109 | 5.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1898 | 13.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8052 | 46.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 1.18 |
0.995
Persistence139d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7109 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1898 | 13.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8052 | 46.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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