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Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

207.08

decreased by 44.81

1 Week

225.60

decreased by 26.29

1 Month

215.06

decreased by 36.83

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7179
5.65***
αARCH0.1894
13.45***
βGARCH0.8056
46.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
1.27

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7179
5.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1894
13.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8056
46.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
1.27

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days