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Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

174.55

decreased by 1.17

1 Month

147.93

decreased by 27.79

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 1993 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~139 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7109
5.65***
αARCH0.1898
13.40***
βGARCH0.8052
46.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0025
1.18

0.995

Persistence

139d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7109
5.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1898
13.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8052
46.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0025
1.18

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

139 days