V-Lab
Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
120,435.70
increased by 11,135.60
1 Week
114,129.48
increased by 4,829.38
1 Month
181,879.49
increased by 72,579.39
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0980 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2596 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7382 | 17.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4397 | 2.58*** |
| γ2 | -1.1831 | -3.70*** |
| γ3 | 1.3125 | 4.49*** |
| γ4 | -0.6265 | -1.50 |
| γ5 | 0.0715 | 0.09 |
| γ6 | -0.5193 | -0.65 |
| γ7 | 1.0889 | 2.45** |
| γ8 | -0.8252 | -4.86*** |
| γ9 | 0.3796 | 3.28*** |
| γ10 | -0.3930 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
310 days
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