V-Lab
Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
149,062.50
increased by 22,698.10
1 Week
160,497.22
increased by 34,132.82
1 Month
210,984.50
increased by 84,620.10
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1006 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2599 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7378 | 17.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4428 | 2.58*** |
| γ2 | -1.1878 | -3.69*** |
| γ3 | 1.3128 | 4.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.6224 | -1.50 |
| γ5 | 0.0685 | 0.09 |
| γ6 | -0.5210 | -0.66 |
| γ7 | 1.0894 | 2.51** |
| γ8 | -0.8199 | -4.93*** |
| γ9 | 0.3725 | 3.21*** |
| γ10 | -0.3803 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
310 days
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