V-Lab
Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6,952.50
decreased by 477.43
1 Week
6,613.66
decreased by 816.27
1 Month
5,841.08
decreased by 1,588.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4668 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 81.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0149 | -0.34 |
| γ2 | -0.1207 | -1.87* |
| γ3 | 0.2592 | 5.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.2563 | -6.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.2339 | 5.42*** |
| γ6 | -0.1193 | -2.69*** |
| γ7 | 0.0120 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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