V-Lab
Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,085.86
decreased by 481.72
1 Week
5,839.95
increased by 272.37
1 Month
5,897.83
increased by 330.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4667 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8627 | 82.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0154 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | -0.1197 | -1.85* |
| γ3 | 0.2583 | 5.65*** |
| γ4 | -0.2559 | -6.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.2345 | 5.44*** |
| γ6 | -0.1216 | -2.74*** |
| γ7 | 0.0175 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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