Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,191.87
decreased by 705.87
1 Week
5,889.04
decreased by 8.70
1 Month
4,959.24
decreased by 938.50
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4671 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1168 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8619 | 81.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0138 | -0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1228 | -1.90* |
| γ3 | 0.2611 | 5.71*** |
| γ4 | -0.2575 | -6.08*** |
| γ5 | 0.2332 | 5.39*** |
| γ6 | -0.1162 | -2.62*** |
| γ7 | 0.0068 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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