V-Lab
Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,484.76
decreased by 165.14
1 Week
3,908.48
increased by 258.58
1 Month
5,348.86
increased by 1,698.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4663 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8627 | 82.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0160 | -0.37 |
| γ2 | -0.1185 | -1.84* |
| γ3 | 0.2573 | 5.63*** |
| γ4 | -0.2552 | -6.05*** |
| γ5 | 0.2345 | 5.45*** |
| γ6 | -0.1223 | -2.77*** |
| γ7 | 0.0174 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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