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Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4,492.44

decreased by 389.72

1 Week

4,853.23

decreased by 28.93

1 Month

4,211.87

decreased by 670.29

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.27**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0564
22.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9191
643.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0488
10.80***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days