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Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

5,346.65

decreased by 235.59

1 Week

5,219.33

decreased by 362.91

1 Month

4,852.35

decreased by 729.89

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.27**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0564
22.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9192
645.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0488
10.82***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days