Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,492.44
1 Week
4,853.23
1 Month
4,211.87
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0564 | 22.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9191 | 643.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0488 | 10.80*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities