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Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

2,664.13

decreased by 229.41

1 Week

2,575.32

decreased by 318.22

1 Month

2,950.71

increased by 57.17

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.57
αARCH0.0565
5.66***
βGARCH0.9190
161.14***
γleverage0.0490
2.73***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0565
5.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9190
161.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0490
2.73***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-