V-Lab
Orsted AS Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7,032,648.00
1 Week
7,235,223.33
1 Month
7,712,625.44
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0607 | 0.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.9506 | 4.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.0225 | -0.07 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 0.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9506 | 4.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0225 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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