Ashika Global Securities Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4,046.41
1 Week
2,304.96
1 Month
2,015.90
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.20 |
| αARCH | 0.1583 | 0.99 |
| βGARCH | 0.7308 | 5.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.2218 | 0.24 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1583 | 0.99 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7308 | 5.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2218 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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