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Ashika Global Securities Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

2,639.52

increased by 1,491.77

1 Week

1,577.24

increased by 429.49

1 Month

1,886.01

increased by 738.26

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.20
αARCH0.1585
0.98
βGARCH0.7306
5.18***
γleverage0.2218
0.24

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1585
0.98
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7306
5.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2218
0.24

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days