Ashika Global Securities Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,639.52
1 Week
1,577.24
1 Month
1,886.01
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.20 |
| αARCH | 0.1585 | 0.98 |
| βGARCH | 0.7306 | 5.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.2218 | 0.24 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 0.98 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7306 | 5.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2218 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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