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Ashika Global Securities Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

738.03

decreased by 56.56

1 Week

1,006.74

increased by 212.15

1 Month

1,161.27

increased by 366.68

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.20
αARCH0.1584
0.99
βGARCH0.7304
5.16***
γleverage0.2223
0.24

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1584
0.99
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7304
5.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2223
0.24

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-