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Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

131.23

decreased by 18.85

1 Week

153.51

increased by 3.43

1 Month

310.43

increased by 160.35

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4409
0.28
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7522
43.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3863
-0.12
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.33
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0001
0.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3807
2.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-