V-Lab
Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
135.98
1 Week
133.22
1 Month
107.64
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3696 trading days (~14.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3162 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7227 | 195.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0782 | -1.05 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0014 | 15.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9979 | 3,501.41*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3696 days
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