V-Lab
Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
54.92
1 Week
66.25
1 Month
112.91
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3173 | 0.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7277 | 186.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1053 | -0.09 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4212 | 0.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9857 | 89.61*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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