Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
67.85
decreased by 11.76
1 Week
72.94
decreased by 6.67
1 Month
69.46
decreased by 10.15
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 250 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~250 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6973 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2955 | 11.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7017 | 29.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -1.81* |
0.997
Persistence250d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6973 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2955 | 11.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7017 | 29.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -1.81* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
250 days
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