V-Lab
Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
117.91
increased by 9.39
1 Week
115.10
increased by 6.58
1 Month
92.82
decreased by 15.70
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2038 trading days (~8.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8021 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2929 | 16.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7068 | 40.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.6057 | -3.19*** |
| γ2 | 1.8393 | 3.91*** |
| γ3 | -3.4621 | -4.05*** |
| γ4 | 4.5904 | 3.46*** |
| γ5 | -3.3835 | -3.02*** |
| γ6 | 1.0707 | 2.57** |
| γ7 | -0.1818 | -1.23 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2038 days
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