V-Lab
Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.91
increased by 4.33
1 Week
56.25
increased by 13.67
1 Month
96.54
increased by 53.96
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1260 trading days (~5.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8280 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2822 | 15.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7172 | 40.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.2063 | -2.32** |
| γ2 | 4.1985 | 3.57*** |
| γ3 | -5.6128 | -4.15*** |
| γ4 | 3.6293 | 3.43*** |
| γ5 | -1.1682 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 0.1656 | 0.65 |
| γ7 | -0.1087 | -0.79 |
| γ8 | 0.0790 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1260 days
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