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Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

46.91

increased by 4.33

1 Week

56.25

increased by 13.67

1 Month

96.54

increased by 53.96

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Weichai Heavy Machinery Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1260 trading days (~5.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8280
4.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2822
15.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7172
40.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.2063
-2.32**
γ24.1985
3.57***
γ3-5.6128
-4.15***
γ43.6293
3.43***
γ5-1.1682
-1.94*
γ60.1656
0.65
γ7-0.1087
-0.79
γ80.0790
0.44

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1260 days