V-Lab
Contact Financial Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
525.29
increased by 8.68
1 Week
536.28
increased by 19.67
1 Month
602.20
increased by 85.59
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2018 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4028 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0389 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8399 | 8.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5869 | -0.64 |
| γ2 | -1.8066 | -1.33 |
| γ3 | 4.4432 | 4.42*** |
| γ4 | -2.6519 | -2.87*** |
| γ5 | 0.3139 | 0.44 |
| γ6 | -0.7240 | -1.13 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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