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Contact Financial Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

525.29

increased by 8.68

1 Week

536.28

increased by 19.67

1 Month

602.20

increased by 85.59

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contact Financial Holding ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2018 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4028
3.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0389
2.27**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8399
8.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.5869
-0.64
γ2-1.8066
-1.33
γ34.4432
4.42***
γ4-2.6519
-2.87***
γ50.3139
0.44
γ6-0.7240
-1.13

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days