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Contact Financial Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

693.81

decreased by 10.17

1 Week

705.92

increased by 1.94

1 Month

798.51

increased by 94.53

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contact Financial Holding ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2018 to Jul 22, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4040
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0401
2.31**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8379
8.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.5305
-0.57
γ2-1.9148
-1.39
γ34.4776
4.41***
γ4-2.5621
-2.73***
γ50.1741
0.24
γ6-0.4555
-0.68

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days