V-Lab
Contact Financial Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
693.81
decreased by 10.17
1 Week
705.92
increased by 1.94
1 Month
798.51
increased by 94.53
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2018 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4040 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0401 | 2.31** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 8.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5305 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | -1.9148 | -1.39 |
| γ3 | 4.4776 | 4.41*** |
| γ4 | -2.5621 | -2.73*** |
| γ5 | 0.1741 | 0.24 |
| γ6 | -0.4555 | -0.68 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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