Skip to main content
V-Lab

Contact Financial Holding Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

1,175.27

decreased by 13.97

1 Week

1,217.22

increased by 27.98

1 Month

1,377.20

increased by 187.96

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contact Financial Holding ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2018 to Aug 13, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
5.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9697
431.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0002
-0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days