V-Lab
Contact Financial Holding Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
1,175.27
decreased by 13.97
1 Week
1,217.22
increased by 27.98
1 Month
1,377.20
increased by 187.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2018 to Aug 13, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 5.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9697 | 431.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0002 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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