V-Lab
Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
1 Day
38.76
1 Week
29.94
1 Month
33.56
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 83% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2358 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1548 | 9.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7811 | 112.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1282 | 4.33*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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