V-Lab
Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
25.26
1 Week
30.50
1 Month
43.80
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2465 | 19.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7442 | 320.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0060 | 0.23 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9571 | 18.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0143 | 9.47*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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