V-Lab
Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
139,213.50
1 Week
173,074.54
1 Month
177,938.01
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4383 | 13.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7809 | 70.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4383 | -8.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 15,479,240.0000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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