How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	46
αARCH	0.1440
βGARCH	0.5968
γleverage	0.0222
λ₁tau intercept	0.0100	0.24
λ₂forecast adj.	0.1804
λ₃tau persistence	0.7422

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	46
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1440
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.5968
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0222
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0100	0.24
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.1804
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.7422

V-Lab

ASTA Energy Solutions AG ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other ASTA Energy Solutions AG Analyses