V-Lab
ASTA Energy Solutions AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
42,909.90
increased by 14,086.77
1 Week
29,590.52
increased by 767.39
1 Month
29,075.14
increased by 252.01
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 4.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8174 | 55.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0240 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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