V-Lab
MCR SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
598,318.10
1 Week
584,725.16
1 Month
603,119.01
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0151 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9888 | 1,156.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0076 | -3.83*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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