MCR SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
1,157,898.00
decreased by 177,254.00
1 Week
1,458,736.60
increased by 123,584.60
1 Month
2,288,171.73
increased by 953,019.73
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 317 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2942 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3040 | 5.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6938 | 12.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.3064 | -3.25*** |
| γ2 | 3.6218 | 3.04*** |
| γ3 | -1.8131 | -2.18** |
| γ4 | 0.7226 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | 0.2190 | 0.28 |
| γ6 | -1.0752 | -1.39 |
| γ7 | 0.3259 | 0.44 |
| γ8 | 1.0784 | 2.40** |
| γ9 | -5.0825 | -3.34*** |
| γ10 | 15.0934 | 3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
317 days
Other MCR SA Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities