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V-Lab

MCR SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

1,157,898.00

decreased by 177,254.00

1 Week

1,458,736.60

increased by 123,584.60

1 Month

2,288,171.73

increased by 953,019.73

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MCR SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 317 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2942
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3040
5.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6938
12.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.3064
-3.25***
γ23.6218
3.04***
γ3-1.8131
-2.18**
γ40.7226
1.03
γ50.2190
0.28
γ6-1.0752
-1.39
γ70.3259
0.44
γ81.0784
2.40**
γ9-5.0825
-3.34***
γ1015.0934
3.44***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

317 days