Smo Clinplus Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
231.32
decreased by 7.34
1 Week
217.10
decreased by 21.56
1 Month
186.67
decreased by 51.99
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0496 | 8.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0772 | 5.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9158 | 64.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2134 | -2.46** |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0496 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9158 | 64.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2134 | -2.46** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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