Smo Clinplus Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
165.96
increased by 7.00
1 Week
157.50
decreased by 1.46
1 Month
170.97
increased by 12.01
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2022 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0487 | 8.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0752 | 5.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9166 | 64.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2517 | -3.29*** |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0487 | 8.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 5.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9166 | 64.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2517 | -3.29*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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