V-Lab
Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
13,933.17
decreased by 2,409.70
1 Week
9,995.92
decreased by 6,346.95
1 Month
8,104.22
decreased by 8,238.65
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4326 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 4.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8437 | 18.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0168 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | -0.1803 | -0.75 |
| γ3 | 0.3618 | 1.01 |
| γ4 | -0.6844 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | 1.6463 | 7.45*** |
| γ6 | -2.4299 | -7.56*** |
| γ7 | 1.5244 | 3.53*** |
| γ8 | -0.2291 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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