Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
67,153.09
decreased by 3,374.69
1 Week
71,158.95
increased by 631.17
1 Month
41,298.61
decreased by 29,229.17
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8336 | 3.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.1246 | 4.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8463 | 20.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4902 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -1.0308 | -0.87 |
| γ3 | 0.9189 | 0.79 |
| γ4 | -0.4538 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | -0.6289 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | 2.5427 | 3.95*** |
| γ7 | -3.3481 | -3.89*** |
| γ8 | 1.4274 | 1.72* |
| γ9 | 0.0122 | 0.02 |
| γ10 | 1.2471 | 2.29** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8336 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1246 | 4.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8463 | 20.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4902 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -1.0308 | -0.87 |
| γ3 | 0.9189 | 0.79 |
| γ4 | -0.4538 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | -0.6289 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | 2.5427 | 3.95*** |
| γ7 | -3.3481 | -3.89*** |
| γ8 | 1.4274 | 1.72* |
| γ9 | 0.0122 | 0.02 |
| γ10 | 1.2471 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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