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V-Lab

Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

10,328.08

decreased by 684.94

1 Week

11,796.44

increased by 783.42

1 Month

15,255.71

increased by 4,242.69

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9707
3.20***
αARCH0.1251
4.58***
βGARCH0.8524
24.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.5366
0.86
γ2-1.1391
-0.87
γ31.0456
0.82
γ4-0.5603
-0.58
γ5-0.6587
-0.93
γ62.7889
3.41***
γ7-3.5729
-3.32***
γ81.4004
1.48
γ90.1698
0.24
γ100.7977
1.29

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9707
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1251
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8524
24.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.5366
0.86
γ2-1.1391
-0.87
γ31.0456
0.82
γ4-0.5603
-0.58
γ5-0.6587
-0.93
γ62.7889
3.41***
γ7-3.5729
-3.32***
γ81.4004
1.48
γ90.1698
0.24
γ100.7977
1.29

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days