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V-Lab

Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

13,933.17

decreased by 2,409.70

1 Week

9,995.92

decreased by 6,346.95

1 Month

8,104.22

decreased by 8,238.65

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4326
3.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1183
4.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8437
18.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0168
0.12
γ2-0.1803
-0.75
γ30.3618
1.01
γ4-0.6844
-2.27**
γ51.6463
7.45***
γ6-2.4299
-7.56***
γ71.5244
3.53***
γ8-0.2291
-0.38

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days