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Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

67,153.09

decreased by 3,374.69

1 Week

71,158.95

increased by 631.17

1 Month

41,298.61

decreased by 29,229.17

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8336
3.21***
αARCH0.1246
4.31***
βGARCH0.8463
20.01***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4902
0.86
γ2-1.0308
-0.87
γ30.9189
0.79
γ4-0.4538
-0.52
γ5-0.6289
-1.01
γ62.5427
3.95***
γ7-3.3481
-3.89***
γ81.4274
1.72*
γ90.0122
0.02
γ101.2471
2.29**

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8336
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1246
4.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8463
20.01***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4902
0.86
γ2-1.0308
-0.87
γ30.9189
0.79
γ4-0.4538
-0.52
γ5-0.6289
-1.01
γ62.5427
3.95***
γ7-3.3481
-3.89***
γ81.4274
1.72*
γ90.0122
0.02
γ101.2471
2.29**

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days