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V-Lab

Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

10,980.77

increased by 1,445.60

1 Week

8,518.72

decreased by 1,016.45

1 Month

9,658.20

increased by 123.03

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4184
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1163
4.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8451
19.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0129
0.10
γ2-0.1713
-0.73
γ30.3495
0.99
γ4-0.6639
-2.24**
γ51.6163
7.52***
γ6-2.4099
-7.71***
γ71.5162
3.57***
γ8-0.1338
-0.23

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days