V-Lab
Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
10,328.08
decreased by 684.94
1 Week
11,796.44
increased by 783.42
1 Month
15,255.71
increased by 4,242.69
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9707 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1251 | 4.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8524 | 24.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5366 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -1.1391 | -0.87 |
| γ3 | 1.0456 | 0.82 |
| γ4 | -0.5603 | -0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.6587 | -0.93 |
| γ6 | 2.7889 | 3.41*** |
| γ7 | -3.5729 | -3.32*** |
| γ8 | 1.4004 | 1.48 |
| γ9 | 0.1698 | 0.24 |
| γ10 | 0.7977 | 1.29 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9707 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1251 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8524 | 24.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5366 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -1.1391 | -0.87 |
| γ3 | 1.0456 | 0.82 |
| γ4 | -0.5603 | -0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.6587 | -0.93 |
| γ6 | 2.7889 | 3.41*** |
| γ7 | -3.5729 | -3.32*** |
| γ8 | 1.4004 | 1.48 |
| γ9 | 0.1698 | 0.24 |
| γ10 | 0.7977 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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