V-Lab
Grimoldi SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
10,980.77
increased by 1,445.60
1 Week
8,518.72
decreased by 1,016.45
1 Month
9,658.20
increased by 123.03
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4184 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1163 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8451 | 19.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0129 | 0.10 |
| γ2 | -0.1713 | -0.73 |
| γ3 | 0.3495 | 0.99 |
| γ4 | -0.6639 | -2.24** |
| γ5 | 1.6163 | 7.52*** |
| γ6 | -2.4099 | -7.71*** |
| γ7 | 1.5162 | 3.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.1338 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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