V-Lab
Grimoldi SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
8,514.20
1 Week
6,087.40
1 Month
6,600.14
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 371% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0290 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 151.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1076 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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