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Grimoldi SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

8,514.20

increased by 2,721.74

1 Week

6,087.40

increased by 294.94

1 Month

6,600.14

increased by 807.68

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 371% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0290
10.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9173
151.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1076
3.38***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days