Tycoon Holding Co for Financial Investments Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
10,769.52
decreased by 69.31
1 Week
10,914.59
increased by 75.76
1 Month
10,911.33
increased by 72.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2013 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9931 | 323.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0138 | 5.49*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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