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Bodycote PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

1,348.80

decreased by 46.94

1 Week

1,443.49

increased by 47.75

1 Month

1,863.37

increased by 467.63

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bodycote PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 1993 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.25
αARCH0.0243
3.22***
βGARCH0.9628
192.44***
γleverage0.0258
1.47

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0243
3.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9628
192.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0258
1.47

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days