V-Lab
Bodycote PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,179.61
decreased by 184.03
1 Week
5,356.51
decreased by 7.13
1 Month
6,104.14
increased by 740.50
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1561 | 3.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 8.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8878 | 59.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3657 | -1.66* |
| γ2 | 1.0761 | 2.39** |
| γ3 | -1.3802 | -3.19*** |
| γ4 | 1.1328 | 3.50*** |
| γ5 | -0.6843 | -3.25*** |
| γ6 | 0.2638 | 2.04** |
| γ7 | -0.0973 | -1.12 |
| γ8 | 0.1854 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -0.2133 | -3.41*** |
| γ10 | 0.0978 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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