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V-Lab

Bodycote PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,179.61

decreased by 184.03

1 Week

5,356.51

decreased by 7.13

1 Month

6,104.14

increased by 740.50

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bodycote PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.1561
3.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0919
8.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8878
59.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3657
-1.66*
γ21.0761
2.39**
γ3-1.3802
-3.19***
γ41.1328
3.50***
γ5-0.6843
-3.25***
γ60.2638
2.04**
γ7-0.0973
-1.12
γ80.1854
2.59***
γ9-0.2133
-3.41***
γ100.0978
1.14

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days