V-Lab
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
29.81
increased by 4.71
1 Week
31.76
increased by 6.66
1 Month
39.41
increased by 14.31
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.2532 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.2128 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7872 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.2350 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 3.9529 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -4.2508 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.3895 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.2913 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.1137 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.0483 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.0021 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.2532 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2128 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7872 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.2350 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 3.9529 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -4.2508 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.3895 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.2913 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.1137 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.0483 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.0021 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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