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V-Lab

Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

52.02

decreased by 4.98

1 Week

56.01

decreased by 0.99

1 Month

59.73

increased by 2.73

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 787 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3958
2.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1993
19.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7998
79.27***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0914
2.84***
γ2-0.2796
-2.92***
γ30.4748
2.78***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

787 days