V-Lab
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.02
decreased by 4.66
1 Week
43.85
increased by 5.17
1 Month
50.83
increased by 12.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 795 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3961 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1992 | 19.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7999 | 79.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0907 | 2.88*** |
| γ2 | -0.2794 | -2.95*** |
| γ3 | 0.4750 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
795 days
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