Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
49.65
decreased by 10.73
1 Week
57.50
decreased by 2.88
1 Month
54.44
decreased by 5.94
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1806 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2086 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.3318 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.8352 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -2.6287 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.4910 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.4531 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 0.1612 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.1375 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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