V-Lab
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.02
decreased by 4.98
1 Week
56.01
decreased by 0.99
1 Month
59.73
increased by 2.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 787 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3958 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1993 | 19.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7998 | 79.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0914 | 2.84*** |
| γ2 | -0.2796 | -2.92*** |
| γ3 | 0.4748 | 2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
787 days
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