Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
45.15
increased by 4.97
1 Week
37.26
decreased by 2.92
1 Month
42.17
increased by 1.99
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3033 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1832 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8168 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0680 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1640 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.0032 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3033 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1832 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8168 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0680 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1640 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.0032 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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