V-Lab
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
35.01
1 Week
36.57
1 Month
44.49
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.2261 | 10.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7621 | 56.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0081 | 0.09 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9992 | 147.06*** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2261 | 10.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7621 | 56.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0081 | 0.09 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9992 | 147.06*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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