Raccoon Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
213.21
1 Week
194.31
1 Month
197.09
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.1912 | 14.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8214 | 74.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.1912 | -12.11*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.2623 | 1.44 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1108 | 0.20 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1912 | 14.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8214 | 74.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1912 | -12.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.2623 | 1.44 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1108 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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