Raccoon Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
286.83
1 Week
286.06
1 Month
209.34
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 103% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5280 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.1047 | 7.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8416 | 102.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1075 | 4.39*** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5280 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8416 | 102.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1075 | 4.39*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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