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Raccoon Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

286.83

increased by 11.44

1 Week

286.06

increased by 10.67

1 Month

209.34

decreased by 66.05

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Raccoon Holdings Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 10, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 103% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 103% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5280
2.32**
αARCH0.1047
7.96***
βGARCH0.8416
102.67***
γleverage0.1075
4.39***

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5280
2.32**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1047
7.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8416
102.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1075
4.39***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days