V-Lab
Guangzhou Development Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
79.32
decreased by 6.95
1 Week
80.16
decreased by 6.11
1 Month
85.20
decreased by 1.07
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2273 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7594 | 24.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0265 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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