V-Lab
Guangzhou Development Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
90.44
decreased by 2.37
1 Week
95.38
increased by 2.57
1 Month
130.27
increased by 37.46
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 23.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2263 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7602 | 99.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0270 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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