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Guangzhou Development Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

79.32

decreased by 6.95

1 Week

80.16

decreased by 6.11

1 Month

85.20

decreased by 1.07

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangzhou Development Group Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
5.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2273
2.24**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7594
24.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0265
0.27

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-