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Guangzhou Development Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

90.44

decreased by 2.37

1 Week

95.38

increased by 2.57

1 Month

130.27

increased by 37.46

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Guangzhou Development Group Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
23.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2263
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7602
99.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0270
1.12

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days