V-Lab
Guangzhou Development Group Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
92.74
1 Week
96.80
1 Month
120.07
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1980 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6984 | 0.58 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1346 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9046 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9857 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0143 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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