V-Lab
Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
84.50
1 Week
92.55
1 Month
111.43
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2155 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7908 | 139.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0286 | -0.12 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6259 | 3.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9971 | 311.70*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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