V-Lab
Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
79.25
1 Week
60.16
1 Month
59.49
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.2152 | 22.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7913 | 95.23*** |
| γleverage | -0.0295 | -2.40** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.5456 | 2.17** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9971 | 129.26*** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2152 | 22.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7913 | 95.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0295 | -2.40** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5456 | 2.17** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9971 | 129.26*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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