V-Lab
Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
80.08
decreased by 16.34
1 Week
88.13
decreased by 8.29
1 Month
106.81
increased by 10.39
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4735 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2221 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7779 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.8455 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 1.2196 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.4926 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.1490 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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