Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
298.90
increased by 8.99
1 Week
241.70
decreased by 48.21
1 Month
245.65
decreased by 44.26
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 01:47 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2584 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.2666 | 15.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6948 | 31.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.15 |
0.961
Persistence18d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2584 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2666 | 15.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6948 | 31.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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