Apex Biotechnology Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
2,696.25
decreased by 133.99
1 Week
2,992.76
increased by 162.52
1 Month
3,545.36
increased by 715.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7177 | 6.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1604 | 16.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8288 | 85.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0077 | 4.20*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7177 | 6.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1604 | 16.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8288 | 85.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0077 | 4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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