V-Lab
Apex Biotechnology Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
1,458.65
decreased by 228.99
1 Week
1,701.04
increased by 13.40
1 Month
1,833.49
increased by 145.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 65 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7049 | 6.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.1600 | 16.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8293 | 85.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0075 | 3.97*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7049 | 6.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1600 | 16.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8293 | 85.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0075 | 3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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