V-Lab
Xspray Pharma Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14,600.90
decreased by 510.41
1 Week
16,917.09
increased by 1,805.78
1 Month
23,322.85
increased by 8,211.54
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8295 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2144 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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