V-Lab
Xspray Pharma Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
18,745.61
increased by 2,792.34
1 Week
15,536.04
decreased by 417.23
1 Month
18,062.76
increased by 2,109.49
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8265 | 5.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1218 | 0.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.8782 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2144 | -0.02 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8265 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1218 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2144 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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