V-Lab
Xspray Pharma Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
36,725.76
decreased by 397.26
1 Week
36,781.50
decreased by 341.52
1 Month
27,076.40
decreased by 10,046.62
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8567 | 1.46 |
| αARCH | 0.1217 | 0.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.8783 | 0.12 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2000 | -0.01 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8567 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 0.12 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2000 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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