V-Lab
Xspray Pharma Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18,462.37
decreased by 2,323.80
1 Week
22,918.54
increased by 2,132.37
1 Month
24,534.62
increased by 3,748.45
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8368 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1216 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8784 | 0.40 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2025 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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