V-Lab
Xspray Pharma Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28,970.30
increased by 1,246.46
1 Week
26,857.84
decreased by 866.00
1 Month
19,908.52
decreased by 7,815.32
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8370 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 0.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2043 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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