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Itafos Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

481,129.10

decreased by 145,386.90

1 Week

438,388.78

decreased by 188,127.22

1 Month

521,945.49

decreased by 104,570.51

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Itafos Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 2009 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7330
2.25**
αARCH0.3167
7.28***
βGARCH0.6411
21.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.1662
3.00***
γ2-1.1917
-1.89*
γ30.5244
0.86
γ4-0.5652
-0.89
γ5-0.8105
-1.64
γ61.7059
4.07***
γ7-2.3846
-4.09***
γ83.6723
5.06***
γ9-4.6252
-7.19***
γ105.3205
4.77***

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7330
2.25**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3167
7.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6411
21.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.1662
3.00***
γ2-1.1917
-1.89*
γ30.5244
0.86
γ4-0.5652
-0.89
γ5-0.8105
-1.64
γ61.7059
4.07***
γ7-2.3846
-4.09***
γ83.6723
5.06***
γ9-4.6252
-7.19***
γ105.3205
4.77***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days