V-Lab
Itafos Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
179,119.70
increased by 50,545.90
1 Week
159,525.08
increased by 30,951.28
1 Month
193,111.46
increased by 64,537.66
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2009 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7160 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.3189 | 7.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6349 | 21.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1626 | 3.00*** |
| γ2 | -1.1758 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.4899 | 0.83 |
| γ4 | -0.5073 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | -0.8818 | -1.84* |
| γ6 | 1.7836 | 4.33*** |
| γ7 | -2.4728 | -4.30*** |
| γ8 | 3.7082 | 5.27*** |
| γ9 | -4.4171 | -7.14*** |
| γ10 | 4.1589 | 4.14*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7160 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3189 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6349 | 21.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1626 | 3.00*** |
| γ2 | -1.1758 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.4899 | 0.83 |
| γ4 | -0.5073 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | -0.8818 | -1.84* |
| γ6 | 1.7836 | 4.33*** |
| γ7 | -2.4728 | -4.30*** |
| γ8 | 3.7082 | 5.27*** |
| γ9 | -4.4171 | -7.14*** |
| γ10 | 4.1589 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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