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V-Lab

Itafos Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

179,119.70

increased by 50,545.90

1 Week

159,525.08

increased by 30,951.28

1 Month

193,111.46

increased by 64,537.66

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Itafos Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 2009 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7160
2.34**
αARCH0.3189
7.26***
βGARCH0.6349
21.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.1626
3.00***
γ2-1.1758
-1.89*
γ30.4899
0.83
γ4-0.5073
-0.82
γ5-0.8818
-1.84*
γ61.7836
4.33***
γ7-2.4728
-4.30***
γ83.7082
5.27***
γ9-4.4171
-7.14***
γ104.1589
4.14***

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7160
2.34**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3189
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6349
21.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.1626
3.00***
γ2-1.1758
-1.89*
γ30.4899
0.83
γ4-0.5073
-0.82
γ5-0.8818
-1.84*
γ61.7836
4.33***
γ7-2.4728
-4.30***
γ83.7082
5.27***
γ9-4.4171
-7.14***
γ104.1589
4.14***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days