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Cynca Nordic AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

476.04

decreased by 31.54

1 Week

622.74

increased by 115.16

1 Month

1,069.36

increased by 561.78

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cynca Nordic AB ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 19, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 401 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7407
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2236
6.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7747
24.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-4.4032
-1.83*
γ26.5235
1.45
γ34.2673
0.69
γ4-12.4189
-1.71*
γ57.1214
1.72*
γ6-2.6125
-1.25
γ72.5419
1.21
γ8-0.5748
-0.35
γ9-0.6025
-0.78
γ10-0.5084
-0.87

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

401 days