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Cynca Nordic AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

1,310.95

increased by 50.84

1 Week

1,337.58

increased by 77.47

1 Month

1,400.04

increased by 139.93

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cynca Nordic AB ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 19, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 906 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8774
3.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2284
6.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7708
23.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-5.0265
-1.86*
γ27.4703
1.51
γ34.2021
0.65
γ4-12.9336
-1.72*
γ57.3775
1.74*
γ6-2.5589
-1.26
γ72.3745
1.22
γ8-0.3747
-0.25
γ9-0.7357
-1.02
γ10-0.2766
-0.49

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

906 days