V-Lab
Cynca Nordic AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
476.04
decreased by 31.54
1 Week
622.74
increased by 115.16
1 Month
1,069.36
increased by 561.78
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 401 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7407 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2236 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 24.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.4032 | -1.83* |
| γ2 | 6.5235 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | 4.2673 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -12.4189 | -1.71* |
| γ5 | 7.1214 | 1.72* |
| γ6 | -2.6125 | -1.25 |
| γ7 | 2.5419 | 1.21 |
| γ8 | -0.5748 | -0.35 |
| γ9 | -0.6025 | -0.78 |
| γ10 | -0.5084 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
401 days
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