V-Lab
Cynca Nordic AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
1,310.95
increased by 50.84
1 Week
1,337.58
increased by 77.47
1 Month
1,400.04
increased by 139.93
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 906 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8774 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2284 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7708 | 23.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.0265 | -1.86* |
| γ2 | 7.4703 | 1.51 |
| γ3 | 4.2021 | 0.65 |
| γ4 | -12.9336 | -1.72* |
| γ5 | 7.3775 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | -2.5589 | -1.26 |
| γ7 | 2.3745 | 1.22 |
| γ8 | -0.3747 | -0.25 |
| γ9 | -0.7357 | -1.02 |
| γ10 | -0.2766 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
906 days
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